Normally, I'd be doing a detailed NFL Week One Review. Unfortunately, Thursday and Sunday were travel days for me, so I only got to see the second half of the Chiefs-Broncos game. Still, ignorance has never prevented me from weighing in on a subject before, so why stop now? Here are my thoughts from Week 1:
Patriots 27, Colts 24: Two big surprises here. First, a lot of points scored compared to what I would have expected; and second, Vanderjagt missed a kick (did Manning call him an "idiot kicker" again?). Corey Dillon (15 rush, 86 yds, 5.7 avg) looked solid in his Pats debut, but that wasn't unexpected. The biggest question mark with Dillon will always be whether he can keep his whiny yap shut. Meanwhile, Tom Brady continues to be one of the best QBs nobody talks about. He may not be the sexy pick, but all he does is win big football games. Be honest, now: Can you name three Patriots receivers? Didn't think so. That tells you everything you need to know about how good Brady is.
Titans 17, Dolphins 7: Again, no big surprises here. The surprise retirement of Ricky Williams meant the sudden disappearance of Miami's entire offense. Lamar Gordon (12 rush, 32 yds, 2.7 avg) was Miami's leading rusher, which put all the pressure on Miami's "quarterback" tandem of Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley. Not great. Tennessee fans may come away from this feeling good about their team, but don't fool yourselves: the Titans have not yet been tested. One big positive for the Titans: Chris Brown (16 rush, 100 yds, 6.3 avg) looks like he'll replace Eddie George quite nicely.
Jaguars 13, Bills 10: A circus play won this one at the buzzer for the Jags, but it never should have come to that. If the perennially-overrated Drew Bledsoe had any ability to improvise whatsoever, he would have staked the Bills to a 17-6 lead on the previous series. Instead, he got sacked, the Bills' defense folded, and the game goes to the Jaguars. Both teams look to be in for long seasons.
Browns 20, Ravens 3: The Ravens are supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, and the Browns are supposed to be one of the worst teams in football. Whoops! But don't cancel the season just yet. In 2001, the lowly Cincinnati Bengals opened the season with a 23-17 win over the New England Patriots. The Pats went on to go 11-5 in the regular season, eventually defeating the Rams in the Super Bowl, while the Bengals went on to win just five more games. Now I don't expect the Ravens to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this year (not without any wideouts, anyway), but they will improve dramatically when they get Johnathan Ogden back. And I still fully expect the Browns to suck.
Jets 31, Bengals 24: As I said, I didn't get to see the game, but from what I heard, Carson Palmer actually looked pretty good for the Bengals, a late interception notwithstanding. Biggest concern for the Bengals turns out not to be the QB situation, but their rush defense, which gave up 196 yards to the underrated-but-older-than-dirt Curtis Martin (OK, so he's 31, but isn't that like 60 in running back years?). Isn't Marvin Lewis supposed to be a defense-first guy? I don't expect too much from the Jets this year. Why not? Because they're the Jets. I wish I had a more intelligent reason, but I don't. Well, that, and they gave up 24 points to the Bengals.
Rams 17, Cardinals 10: Might just be the ugliest game of the weekend. Rams coach Mike Martz continues to try to prove to everyone that he really is dumber than you think he is, even after you revise your assessment dumbward. The Cards managed to yet again wrest defeat from the jaws of victory. Way to go on that holding penalty that nullified what should have been the game-winning TD for Arizona. Eventually, with some support, coach Green should be able to take the Cards to respectability (but no further -- he will do for them what Dungy did for the Bucs). Not this year, though; the talent simply isn't there. Still, it was good to see Emmitt Smith have a solid outing (16 rush, 87 yds, 5.4 avg). Meanwhile, if the Rams struggle at home against the Cardinals, then I'm not convinced they're going to do much this year. Which will be fine with me because I hate the Rams. :)
Lions 20, Bears 16: The Lions are off the schnide! The last time they won on the road, Clinton was still in office. Of course, a late boneheaded throw into triple coverage by Chicago's Rex Grossman helped. The Lions will be much-improved this year, but not improved enough to contend for a playoff spot (yet). The Bears will prove that Dick Jauron wasn't the problem.
Chargers 27, Texans 20: A lot of NFL pundits seemed to think this was a big upset, but I just don't see it. Not that I expect the Chargers to win 10 games or anything; I just don't expect the Texans to be very good this year. And you can never count out a team that has one of the best RBs in the league in LaDanian Tomlinson (26 rush, 121 yds, 4.7 avg). The only real surprise here, I thought, was that Drew Brees looked uncannily like a "quarterback" or something (17-24, 209 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INT), including a beauty of a TD pass late, which turned out to be the game-winner.
Seahawks 21, Saints 7: No surprises here, either. The Seahawks were awful on the road last year, but there's no reason to expect that was going to continue. The Saints have been on the verge of total collapse for several years now, and I expect this will finally be their year! This should be Haslett's last year in New Orleans. And judging by how San Francisco and St. Louis played, the Hawks should run away with the NFC West. Their defense is the only question mark concerning how far they'll be able to go.
Steelers 24, Raiders 21: Say this about the Steelers: they should be exciting this year. Built and blew two big leads, then won anyway. By all accounts, this was one of the most entertaining games of the weekend, and I sure wish I had seen it. Raiders QB Rich Gannon (20-37, 305 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT) looks like he might be rebounding from last year's suckitude, but then this is the Steelers' pass defense. I also didn't get to see how Warren Sapp looked in his Raiders debut -- comments are welcome. You've almost certainly read the line of the week elsewhere, but in case you haven't, here it is: Steelers RB Jerome Bettis rushed 5 times for 1 yard (0.2 avg) and three TDs.
Washington 16, Buccaneers 10: While this may be a sign of good things to come for Washington and the Second Coming of Joe Gibbs, I remain fully convinced that the Buccaneers will suck eggs this year. True, Sapp's production was waning, but he and John Lynch were vocal defensive leaders in the locker room, and now they don't have that. Gruden or no, Tampa is a defense-first team, and if their defense isn't good, Brad "the human injury" Johnson isn't going to save you from squat. For Washington's part, I wouldn't go patting yourselves on the back just yet on that Bailey-for-Portis trade. Wait until you play a team with a passing attack. Or a run defense, for that matter.
Vikings 35, Cowboys 17: Testaverde looked good for Dallas (29-50, 355 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT), but he's still 425 years old. Eddie George (8 rush, 25 yds, 3.1 avg) looked like a back whose career is pretty much done, confirming Tennessee's decision to let him go. Dallas' defense, which is supposed to be their strong suit, gave up 415 yards and 5 TDs. Their offense, which is supposed to be old, slow, and weak, racked up 423 yards but could only manage 17 points. The Vikings offense finally appears to be hitting its stride, after several seasons of failed promise. They should walk away with the NFC North easily, then choke in the playoffs again and crush their fans' spirit yet again. (I mean, seriously, is there a worse team to be a fan of than the Minnesota Vikings? Every year they look like the team to beat, and every year they find creative ways to piss away the season. They don't even have enough decency to just outright suck every once in a while. Seattle may lead the nation in attempted suicides, but I have to think there's a spike in Minneapolis every December.)
Eagles 31, Giants 17: Speaking of teams that it's painful to root for, this brings us to the Eagles. Donovan McNabb finally has a legitimate target in Terrell Owens, and T.O. delivered, grabbing 3 TDs. It leaves me wondering just how creative the Eagles are going to have to get to self-destruct this season. Of course, T.O. is still T.O., and this leaves open the very real possibility that his mouth will yet again exceed his talent. And there are still question marks on defense for the Eagles, who bolstered (?) their run defense at the expense of their pass defense. Why the question mark? Tiki Barber ran for 125 yards on just 9 carries, even though 72 of these came on a long TD run with the game already out of hand. Take away the long run and Barber still averaged 6.6 yards per carry. As for the Giants, are we finally willing to admit that Kurt Warner's Super Bowl season was a fluke? Ryan Leaf could have succeeded with that O-line and those receivers. Warner is done, and has been for several years.
Falcons 21, 49ers 19: The niners tried to make this game interesting late, but let's face it: a Quentin Tarantino script couldn't have made this game interesting. Yeah, yeah, Mora should have been head coach of the Niners and now is head coach of the Falcons. Yeah, yeah, this is going to be Michael Vick's breakout season. That still doesn't mean I can name three players on either team. And it still doesn't mean I'll be talking about either team in December.
Broncos 34, Chiefs 24: When it comes to prognosticating, I'm almost always wrong. For example, tgirsch in 1998: "Ryan Leaf has way more upside than Peyton Manning!" But for years I maintained that Jake Plummer would be a very good quarterback if only he had some talent around him, and at least on that count, it turns out I was right. Yes, he still makes the occasional bonehead play (witness his left-handed INT last night that kept KC alive), but so does Brett Favre, and he's still one of the best playing. And the Broncos don't seem to be missing Clinton Portis very much, either. Quentin Griffin (23 rush, 156 yds, 2 TDs, 6.8 avg, plus 1 receiving TD) seems to have filled the RB spot quite nicely for Denver. Of course, that's easy to do when your offensive line cheats on every play, as the Denver line is famous for doing. If the Mike Shanahan era in Denver has taught us one thing, it's this: it doesn't matter who the running back is in that system. I'm convinced that I could rush for 100 yards on that team. Meanwhile, Trent Green is in quarterback hell. I remain convinced that he's one of the top five QBs currently playing the game, but you'd never know it because his only legit receiving threat is his tight end. If not for Priest Holmes keeping the defense honest, Green's number would be anemic, and it wouldn't be his fault at all. Anyway, I saw the second half of this game, and it was entertaining as hell. Defense wins championships, but it's boring. When both teams are moving the ball, as these teams were, it makes for some fun football.
Bonus Prediction -- Packers at Panthers: What happens when the resistable force (Carolina's offense) meets the moveable object (Green Bay's defense)? In this case, the resistable force wins, and by 9 points. I will disclaim that I am a dyed-in-the-wool Packers fan, but their defense is so bad this year, it won't matter how well Ahman Green runs the football. Packers fans (like myself) will learn that the Packers really are every bit as bad as they looked in the preseason, and will be lucky to go 8-8 (I predict 7-9). I just hope that prediction turns out to be every bit as accurate as my 1998 Ryan Leaf prediction. Meanwhile, despite winning big tonight, Carolina doesn't repeat. The Falcons win a diluted NFC South.
